Monday, March 2, 2009

Theoretically Perfect?

In theory, it sounds pretty simple huh? Dream on, pal!

In the real world, pivot points don’t work all the time. Price tends to hesitate around pivot lines and at times it’s just ridiculously hard to tell what it will do next.

Sometimes the price will stop just before reaching a pivot line and then reverse meaning your profit target doesn’t get reached. Other times, it looks like a pivot line is a strong support level so you go long only to see the price fall, stop you out, then reverse back into your direction.

You must be very selective and create a pivot point trading strategy that you intend to strictly follow.

Let’s go look at a chart to see just how difficult and easy pivot points might be.

Pivot Points

Ooooh pretty colors! We like...

Look at the orange oval. Notice how the PP was a strong support but if you went long on PP, it never was able to rise up to R1.

Look at the first purple circle. The pair broke down through PP but failed to reach S1 before reversing back to PP. On the second break down though (second purple circle), the pair did manage to reach S1 before once again reversing back to PP.

Look at the pink oval. Again, PP acted as strong support but never was able to rise up to R1.

On the yellow circle, the pair broke out to the downside again, sliced right through S1, and managed to fall all the way down to S2.

If you ever attempted to go long on this chart, you would have been stopped out every single time.

Personally, we would have not even thought about buying this pair - Why not? Well we have a little secret. What we didn’t show you regarding this chart was that this pair was trending down for quite some time now.

Remember the trend is your friend. We don’t like to backstab our friends, so we try our best to never trade against the trend.

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