Monday, March 2, 2009

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger bands are used to measure a market’s volatility. Basically, this little tool tells us whether the market is quiet or whether the market is LOUD! When the market is quiet, the bands contract; and when the market is LOUD, the bands expand. Notice on the chart below that when the price was quiet, the bands were close together, but when the price moved up, the bands spread apart.

Bollinger Bands

That’s all there is to it. Yes, we could go on and bore you by going into the history of the Bollinger band, how it is calculated, the mathematical formulas behind it, and so on and so forth, but we really didn’t feel like typing it all out.

In all honesty, you don’t need to know any of that junk. We think it’s more important that we show you some ways you can apply the Bollinger bands to your trading.

Note: If you really want to learn about the calculations of a Bollinger band, then you can go to www.bollingerbands.com

The Bollinger Bounce

One thing you should know about Bollinger Bands is that price tends to return to the middle of the bands. That is the whole idea behind the Bollinger bounce (smart, huh?). If this is the case, then by looking at the chart below, can you tell us where the price might go next?

Bollinger Bounce

If you said down, then you are correct! As you can see, the price settled back down towards the middle area of the bands.

Bollinger Bounce

That’s all there is to it. What you just saw was a classic Bollinger bounce. The reason these bounces occur is because Bollinger Bands act like mini support and resistance levels. The longer the time frame you are in, the stronger these bands are. Many traders have developed systems that thrive on these bounces, and this strategy is best used when the market is ranging and there is no clear trend.

Posted by THE GREATEST INCOME ONLY FROM FOREX at 2:44 AM 0 comments

Exponential Moving Average

Exponential Moving Average

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Although the simple moving average is a great tool, there is one major flaw associated with it. Simple moving averages are very susceptible to spikes. Let me show you an example of what I mean:

Let’s say we plot a 5 period SMA on the daily chart of the EUR/USD and the closing prices for the last 5 days are as follows:

Day 1: 1.2345
Day 2: 1.2350
Day 3: 1.2360
Day 4: 1.2365
Day 5: 1.2370

The simple moving average would be calculated as
(1.2345+1.2350+1.2360+1.2365+1.2370)/5= 1.2358

Simple enough right?

Well what if Day 2’s price was 1.2300? The result of the simple moving average would be a lot lower and it would give you the notion that the price was actually going down, when in reality, Day 2 could have just been a one time event (maybe interest rates decreasing).

The point I’m trying to make is that sometimes the simple moving average might be too simple. If only there was a way that you could filter out these spikes so that you wouldn’t get the wrong idea. Hmmmm…I wonder….Wait a minute……Yep, there is a way!

It’s called the Exponential Moving Average!

Exponential moving averages (EMA) give more weight to the most recent periods. In our example above, the EMA would put more weight on Days 3-5, which means that the spike on Day 2 would be of lesser value and wouldn’t affect the moving average as much. What this does is it puts more emphasis on what traders are doing NOW.

Exponetial Moving Average

When trading, it is far more important to see what traders are doing now rather than what they did last week or last month.

Posted by THE GREATEST INCOME ONLY FROM FOREX at 2:43 AM 0 comments

Simple Moving Average

Simple Moving Average

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

A simple moving average is the simplest type of moving average (DUH!). Basically, a simple moving average is calculated by adding up the last “X” period’s closing prices and then dividing that number by X. Confused??? Allow me to clarify.

If you plotted a 5 period simple moving average on a 1 hour chart, you would add up the closing prices for the last 5 hours, and then divide that number by 5. Voila! You have your simple moving average.

If you were to plot a 5 period simple moving average on a 10 minute chart, you would add up the closing prices of the last 50 minutes and then divide that number by 5.

If you were to plot a 5 period simple moving average on a 30 minute chart, you would add up the closing prices of the last 150 minutes and then divide that number by 5.

If you were to plot the 5 period simple moving average on the a 4 hr. chart………………..OK OK, I think you get the picture! Let’s move on.

Most charting packages will do all the calculations for you. The reason we just bored you (yawn!) with how to calculate a simple moving average is because it is important that you understand how the moving averages are calculated. If you understand how each moving average is calculated, you can make your own decision as to which type is better for you.

Just like any indicator out there, moving averages operate with a delay. Because you are taking the averages of the price, you are really only seeing a “forecast” of the future price and not a concrete view of the future. Disclaimer: Moving averages will not turn you into Ms. Cleo the psychic!

Moving Averages

Here is an example of how moving averages smooth out the price action.

On the previous chart, you can see 3 different SMAs. As you can see, the longer the SMA period is, the more it lags behind the price. Notice how the 62 SMA is farther away from the current price than the 30 and 5 SMA. This is because with the 62 SMA, you are adding up the closing prices of the last 62 periods and dividing it by 62. The higher the number period you use, the slower it is to react to the price movement.

The SMA’s in this chart show you the overall sentiment of the market at this point in time. Instead of just looking at the current price of the market, the moving averages give us a broader view, and we can now make a general prediction of its future price.

Posted by THE GREATEST INCOME ONLY FROM FOREX at 2:42 AM 0 comments

Price

Price Smoothies

A moving average is simply a way to smooth out price action over time. By “moving average”, we mean that you are taking the average closing price of a currency for the last ‘X’ number of periods.

Moving Average

Like every indicator, a moving average indicator is used to help us forecast future prices. By looking at the slope of the moving average, you can make general predictions as to where the price will go.

As we said, moving averages smooth out price action. There are different types of moving averages, and each of them has their own level of “smoothness”. Generally, the smoother the moving average, the slower it is to react to the price movement. The choppier the moving average, the quicker it is to react to the price movement.

Posted by THE GREATEST INCOME ONLY FROM FOREX at 2:41 AM 0 comments

Fibonacci Extension

Fibonacci Extension

The next use of Fibonacci you will be applying is that of targets. Let’s start with an example in an uptrend.

In an uptrend, the general idea is to take profits on a long trade at a Fibonacci Price Extension Level. You determine the Fibonacci extension levels by using three mouse clicks. First, click on a significant Swing Low, then drag your cursor and click on the most recent Swing High. Finally, drag your cursor back down and click on the retracement Swing Low. This will display each of the Price Extension Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price levels.

On this 1-hour USD/CHF chart, we plotted the Fibonacci extension levels by clicking on the Swing Low at 1.2447 on 08/14/05 and dragged the cursor to the Swing High at 1.2593 on 08/15/05 and then down to the retracement Swing Low of 1.2541 on 08/15/05. The following Fibonacci extension levels created are 1.2597 (0.382), 1.2631 (0.618), 1.2687 (1.000), 1.2743 (1.382), 1.2760 (1.500), and 1.2777 (1.618).

Fibonacci Extension

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred.

  • The market rallied to the 0.500 level
  • fell back to the retracement Swing Low
  • then rallied back up to the 0.500 level
  • fell back slightly
  • rallied to the 0.618 level
  • fell back to the 0.382 level which acted as support
  • then rallied all the way to the 1.382 level
  • consolidated a bit
  • then rallied to the 1.500 level

Fibonacci Extension

You can see from these examples that the market often finds at least temporary resistance at the Fibonacci extension levels - not always, but often. As in the examples of the retracement levels, it should be apparent that there are a few problems to deal with here as well. First, there is no way of knowing which level will provide resistance. The 0.500 level was a good level to cover any long trades in the above example since the market retraced back to its original level, but if you didn’t get back in the trade, you would have left a lot of profits on the table.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low to start from in creating the Fibonacci Extension Levels. One way is from the last Swing Low as we did in the examples; another is from the lowest Swing Low of the past 30 bars. Again, the point is that there is no one right way to do it, and consequently it becomes a guessing game.

Alright, let’s see how Fibonacci extension levels can be used during a downtrend. In a downtrend, the general idea is to take profits on a short trade at a Fibonacci price extension level since the market often finds at least temporary support at these levels.

On this 1-hour EUR/USD chart, we plotted the Fibonacci extension levels by clicking on the Swing High at 1.21377 on 07/15/05 and dragged the cursor to the Swing Low at 1.2021 on 08/15/15 and then down to the retracement High of 1.2085. The following Fibonacci extension levels created are 1.2041 (0.382), 1.2027 (0.500), 1.2013 (0.618), 1.1969 (1.000), 1.1925 (1.382), 1.1911 (1.500), and 1.1897 (1.618).

Fibonacci Extension

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred.

  • The market fell down almost to the 0.382 level which for right now is acting as a support level
  • The market then traded sideways between the retracement Swing High level and 0.382 level
  • Finally, the market broke through the 0.382 and rested on the 0.500 level
  • Then it broke the 0.500 level and fell all the way down to the 1.000 level

Fibonacci Extension

Alone, Fibonacci levels will not make you rich. However, Fibonacci levels are definitely useful as part of an effective trading method that includes other analysis and techniques. You see, the key to an effective trading system is to integrate a few indicators (not too many) that are applied in a way that is not obvious to most observers.

All successful traders know it’s how you use and integrate the indicators (including Fibonacci) that makes the difference. The lesson learned here is that Fibonacci Levels can be a useful tool, but never enter or exit a trade based on Fibonacci Levels alone.

Posted by THE GREATEST INCOME ONLY FROM FOREX at 2:40 AM 0 comments

Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci Retracement

In an uptrend, the general idea is to go long the market on a retracement to a Fibonacci support level. In order to find the retracement levels, you would click on a significant Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High. This will display each of the Retracement Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price level. Let’s take a look at some examples of markets in an uptrend.

This is an hourly chart of USD/JPY. Here we plotted the Fibonacci Retracement Levels by clicking on the Swing Low at 110.78 on 07/12/05 and dragging the cursor to the Swing High at 112.27 on 07/13/05. You can see the levels plotted by the software. The Retracement Levels were 111.92 (0.236), 111.70 (0.382), 111.52 (0.500), and 111.35 (0.618). Now the expectation is that if USD/JPY retraces from this high, it will find support at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing buy orders at these levels as the market pulls back.

Fibonacci Retracement

Now let’s look at what actually happened after the Swing High occurred. The market pulled back right through the 0.236 level and continued the next day piercing the 0.382 level but never actually closing below it. Later on that day, the market resumed its upward move. Clearly buying at the 0.382 level would have been a good short term trade.

Fibonacci Retracement

Now let’s see how we would use Fibonacci Retracement Levels during a downtrend. This is an hourly chart for EUR/USD. As you can see, we found our Swing High at 1.3278 on 02/28/05 and our Swing Low at 1.3169 a couple hours later. The Retracement Levels were 1.3236 (0.618), 1.3224 (0.500), 1.3211 (0.382), and 1.3195 (.236). The expectation for a downtrend is if it retraces from this high, it will encounter resistance at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing sell orders at these levels as the market attempts to rally.

Fibonacci Retracement during a Downtrend

Let’s check out what happened next. Now isn’t that a thing of beauty! The market did try to rally but it barely past the 0.500 level spiking to a high 1.3227 and it actually closed below it. After that bar, you can see that the rally reversed and the downward move continued. You would have made some nice dough selling at the 0.382 level.

Fibonacci Retracement during a Downtrend

Here’s another example. This is an hourly chart for GBP/USD. We had a Swing High of 1.7438 on 07/26/05 and a Swing Low of 1.7336 the next day. So our Retracement Levels are: 1.7399 (0.618), 1.7387 (0.500), 1.7375 (0.382), and 1.7360 (0.236). Looking at the chart, the market looks like it tried to break the 0.500 level on several occasions, but try as it may, it failed. So would putting a sell order at the 0.500 level be a good trade?

False Fibonacci Retracement

If you did, you would have lost some serious cheddar! Take a look at what happened. The Swing Low looked to be the bottom for this downtrend as the market rallied above the Swing High point.

False Fibonacci Retracement

You can see from these examples the market usually finds at least temporary support (during an uptrend) or resistance (during a downtrend) at the Fibonacci Retracements Levels. It’s apparent that there a few problems to deal with here. There’s no way of knowing which level will provide support. The 0.236 seems to provide the weakest support/resistance, while the other levels provide support/resistance at about the same frequency. Even though the charts above show the market usually only retracing to the 0.382 level, it doesn’t mean the price will hit that level every time and reverse. Sometimes it’ll hit the 0.500 and reverse, other times it’ll hit the 0.618 and reverse, and other times the price will totally ignore Mr. Fibonacci and blow past all the levels like similar to the way Allen Iverson blows past his defenders with his nasty first step. Remember, the market will not always resume its uptrend after finding temporary support, but instead continue to decline below the last Swing Low. Same thing for a downtrend. The market may instead decide to continue above the last Swing High.

The placement of stops is a challenge. It’s probably best to place stops below the last Swing Low (on an uptrend) or above the Swing High (on a downtrend), but this requires taking a high level of risk in proportion to the likely profit potential in the trade. This is called reward-to-risk ratio. In a later lesson, you will learn more money management and risk control and how you would only take trades with certain reward-to-risk ratios.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low and Swing High points to start from to create the Fibonacci Retracement Levels. People look at charts differently and so will have their own version of where the Swing High and Swing Low points should be. The point is, there is no one right way to do it, but the bad thing is sometimes it becomes a guessing game.

Posted by THE GREATEST INCOME ONLY FROM FOREX at 2:37 AM 0 comments

Fibonacci

We will be using Fibonacci ratios a lot in our trading so you better learn it and love it like your mother. Fibonacci is a huge subject and there are many different studies of Fibonacci with weird names but we’re going to stick to two: retracement and extension.

Let me first start by introducing you to the Fib man himself…Leonard Fibonacci.

Leonard Fibonacci was a famous Italian mathematician, also called a super duper uber geek, who had an “aha!” moment and discovered a simple series of numbers that created ratios describing the natural proportions of things in the universe

The ratios arise from the following number series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 ……

This series of numbers is derived by starting with 1 followed by 2 and then adding 1 + 2 to get 3, the third number. Then, adding 2 + 3 to get 5, the fourth number, and so on.

After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure the ratio of any number to that of the next higher number you get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals 0.618.

If you measure the ratio between alternate numbers you get .382. For example, 34 divided by 89 = 0.382 and that’s as far as into the explanation as we’ll go.

These ratios are called the “golden mean.” Okay that’s enough mumbo jumbo. Even I’m about to fall asleep with all these numbers. I'll just cut to the chase; these are the ratios you have to know:

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764

Fibonacci Extension Levels
0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618

You won’t really need to know how to calculate all of this. Your charting software will do all the work for you. But it’s always good to be familiar with the basic theory behind the indicator so you’ll have knowledge to impress your date.

Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as support and resistance levels. Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the support and resistance levels become a self-fulfilling expectation.

Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders are watching these levels and placing buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool usually works due self-fulfilling expectations.

Most charting software includes both Fibonacci retracement levels and extension level tools. In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you’ll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.

A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.

A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.

Let's take a closer look at Fibonacci retracement levels...

Posted by THE GREATEST INCOME ONLY FROM FOREX at 2:34 AM 0 comments
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